Market Nibble
The current data validates a distinctive stagnation in lamb and lamb transfers from Western Australia to the eastern states during 2025 As at the end of July, a total of 193, 600 head had been delivered east, down 74 % from the very same factor in 2024, which had actually seen virtually 884, 000 head transferred by year’s end, the second-highest yearly volume on document.
The seasonal transfer chart listed below highlights simply exactly how strange the existing year has actually been. Compared to 2024’s phenomenal height in May, which surpassed 165, 000 head, the 2025 line is tracking well listed below last year for virtually every month with the exemption of July. Outside of that, January (7, 503 head) and February (4, 856 substantially underperformed against the ten-year monthly averages, as imagined by the populated black line in the same graph.
By theorizing present volumes ahead utilizing ordinary seasonal percentages, full-year 2025 circulations might close somewhere near 425, 000 head, aligning it with periods like 2019 (409, 112 head) which is well below peak years such as 2020 (1 91 million) or 2024 This is reflected in the chart listed below which reveals 2025’s orange “year-to-date” bar sitting decently together with other years, recommending a middle-of-the-pack outcome despite the improved circulations seen since March 2025
The Lamb vs Lamb composition of transfers from WA revealed over deals better understanding right into the makeup of these circulations. It shows that in 2025, a striking 75 % of interstate transfers have been lambs, the highest lamb share on document.
This is a substantial departure from historic patterns where the split was usually more detailed to even (e.g., 2017 or skewed a little toward sheep (e.g., 2012, 2014 and 2015/16 The raising reliance on lambs may show a variety of pressures in WA. Growers aiming to reduce work and shearing prices, stay clear of carrying more supply right into a dry springtime, or capitalise on stronger east coast need for massacre ready lambs at a good rate discount to the eastern markets.
The noted seasonal decrease in sheep quantities, specifically during June and July which traditionally notes the trough of long-distance transport during the northern halt, additionally talks with tightening up exit ramp alternatives for WA manufacturers. With real-time export inaccessible throughout the postponement phase and WA handling ability stretched, eastern markets continue to be an important stress valve, yet not always a constant or reliable one. While May showed that big eastbound flows are still possible when problems align, the volatility seen month to month highlights exactly how delicate this outlet remains.
The transfer photo that arises for 2025 is of a year that began slowly, raised briefly under pressure, and has because fallen back into suppressed area. While a repeat of 2024’s robust west to east circulations currently shows up out of reach, the eastern market still plays a critical duty in alleviating regional oversupply and protecting manufacturer confidence in WA, specifically as broader reforms to live export and regional handling unfold.